FAO: “Higher agriculture commodity prices here to stay”

//24 Jun 2011
Higher food prices and volatility in commodity markets are here to stay, according to a new report by the OECD and FAO.
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020 says that a good harvest in the coming months should push commodity prices down from the extreme levels seen earlier this year. However, the Outlook states that over the coming decade real prices for cereals could average as much as 20% higher and those for meats as much as 30% higher, compared to 2001-10. These projections are well below the peak price levels experienced in 2007-08 and again this year.

Higher prices for commodities are being passed through the food chain, leading to rising consumer price inflation in most countries. This raises concerns for economic stability and food security in some developing countries, with poor consumers most at risk of malnutrition, the report says.

FAO Director-General Jacques Diouf said: "In the current market context, price volatility could remain a feature of agricultural markets, and coherent policies are required to both reduce volatility and limit its negative impacts", noting that "the key solution to the problem will be boosting investment in agriculture and reinforcing rural development in developing countries, where 98% of the hungry people live today and where population is expected to increase by 47% over the next decades."

The report suggests, among other things, that G20 countries take steps to boost agricultural producitivity in developing countries, reduce or eliminate trade-disorting policies and establish a new mechanism to improve information and transparency on agricultural production, consumption, stocks and trade.

Per-capita food consumption will expand most rapidly in Eastern Europe, Asia and Latin America, where incomes are rising and populations growth is slowing. Meat, dairy products, vegetable oils and sugar should experience the highest demand increases, according to the report.

Related websites:
FAO
OECD

FAO: Eliminating H5N1 will take more than 10 years

//18 Apr 2011
Because of deep-rooted barriers, there is little chance that H5N1 avian influenza can be expelled within the next 10 years from the six countries where it remains entrenched, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) says in a new report.
Most of the 60-plus countries that reported H5N1 in 2006 have eliminated it since then, but it remains endemic in China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, India, and Egypt, notes the report, titled "Approaches to Controlling, Preventing and Eliminating H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Endemic Countries."

The FAO says the elimination effort faces three major obstacles in these countries: the structure of the poultry industry, the quality of veterinary and animal production services, and the level of commitment by all sectors.

Further, the report says "there is no guarantee that the current incremental approach will eliminate H5N1 HPAI." The goal may require innovative measures such as new, easily deliverable poultry vaccines and genetic manipulation of poultry to make them resistant to the virus.

As long as H5N1 outbreaks continue, so will the risk of the virus evolving into a human pandemic strain, the report notes. Several of the H5N1-endemic countries have had human H5N1 cases this year, with Egypt leading the list with 22 confirmed cases so far.

[Source: CIDRAP]